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Monday, August 27, 2007

Hungary Retail Sales June 2007

News on the retail sales front is really getting monotonous. They are down, and down, and down. According to the statistics office:

"In June the fall of retail sales continued. The volume of retail sales adjusted for calendar effects decreased by 1.5% in the first half of 2007, by 3.0% in the second quarter and by 3.6% in June, compared to the same period of the previous year. Compared to the previous month the volume of retail sales adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects fell by 0.4%."

For what they are worth I reproduce the relevant graphs and charts below. If you put together the construction index and the retail sales one, it is clear domestic demand is going to be extremely weak going forward, if you add to this the impact of inflation on exports then this sector will be hard pressed to pull the economy, so it is very hard for me to see where those analysts are getting the growth numbers they have in their forecasts from. More of this in September when we get the detailed breakdown of Q2 2007 GDP.

As we can see from the retail sales index, things are moving down.

If we now look at the monthly change we can see that the last month when sales increased was in fact December, just before xmas.

And the year on year data only adds to the general picture, and to the gloom.

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